Flowering Phenology and Diversity of Dicots in Desert-Shrub

Grassland, Southeastern Arizona, 1987-1999.

ROBERT M. CHEW

POBOX 16306, PORTAL, AZ85632

© 2004 R.M. Chew

 

 

        Abstract. _____ The timing and magnitude of flowering of a suite of 32 dicot annuals and perennials in a degraded grassland invaded by desert shrubs was recorded over 13 years (1987-1999).  Flowering was related to weekly rainfall and sum of degree days in six phenological seasons: winter (germination of annuals, dormancy of perennials), early spring (vegetative growth and limited flowering), late spring (major spring flowering), early summer (no, or limited flowering), late summer (major summer flowering), fall (little or no flowering, senescence and dormancy).  Each season varied relative to itself through the years from extremely wet to extreme drought and extremely cold to extremely warm.  Each year was unique in its pattern of six seasons. Most minimum and maximum values occurred 1994-1999.

        Fourteen species flowered only in spring, 4 only in summer, 13 spring and summer, and 1 in fall. Flowering periods overlapped, but the times of maximum bloom were often significantly separated. The duration of a species’ flowering was a function of the time of its first bloom.  Durations peaked in late spring and then declined; durations progressively declined in summer.
         Regression models were constructed for each species total flowering (Nt) in relation to the independent variables of each seasonal rainfall and temperature sum, in the current year and previous year.
Total flowerings of 18 of the 32 species were significantly predictable from rainfall and temperature, 6 for both their spring and summer flowerings. The number of significant seasonal variables in a predictive regression ranged from 1 to 5 with a median of 3. The first two variables to enter a model accounted for an average of 88% of the variability of Nt (range 56-100%).The whole models had an average adjusted R2 of 0.93.  No two species had the same first two predictive variables. For the two predominant predictive variables, 24 of 45 are for the current year and 21/45 for the previous year; Precipitation is a dominant variable in 31/45 and temperature sum 14/45.

        At least 15 different phenological patterns of flowering can be proposed for the 32 plant species, based on responses such as specific time of flowering, dependence on rain in a particular season, in the present or previous year, biseasonal flowering, seasonal flexibility, and the nature of the species: annual, type of perennial, evergreen, deciduous succulent, and time span between vegetative growth and flowering. In years when there was prolonged low moisture index, based on low precipitation and / or high temperature sum, there was not only failure of flowering, but senescence and even death of large proportions of some species populations. There were some hierarchies of recovery of species.

        Considering what is now known about the genetics of flowering in Arabidopsis, it is reasonable to speculate that the biodiversity of the dicots in this semiarid community is a result of the interaction of the great variety of rainfall and temperature conditions, season to season and year to year, with the many phenotypes of the available plants, as they have assembled into the community in the short term and further adapted in the long term.

           

INTRODUCTION

 

        The annual sequence of plant phases from germination through vegetative growth, flowering, dispersal of seeds and senescence is one of the most striking aspects of nature, and it entices one into the observation of nature.  The utility of phenological research has expanded until it is essential for understanding the functioning of ecosystems (Leith, 1974); it provides paradigms of evolution (Lyons and Fox,1996) and gives evidence for global warming (Menzel and Fabian, 1999).  Here I extend the empirical study of flowering phenology in a semiarid site in relation to precipitation and air temperature over a 13 yr period.

        Temperature, moisture and photoperiod are major clues determining blooming, but there is little documentation for individual species.  Much effort has gone into trying to relate adaptation of flowering times to different climatic patterns (Fox, 1989), and to pollinators, predators, pathogens, competitors and nutrients (Rathcke and Lacey, 1985).  As the latter authors state (p. 191), “In general there are many more hypotheses about ultimate factors that may mold flowering times than there are thorough studies that permit testing them”.  The detailed studies of single species by Fox (1989) and LeBuhn (1998) illustrate the difficulties of determining even the proximate factors.

        The study of perennials and annuals requires different perspectives. Perennials have a flexibility of development due to stored resources in persisting plant parts and can remain vegetative or flower.  Each year annuals have the complexities of germination, survival of seedlings, vegetative growth, flowering, setting seeds, and dispersal of seeds to seed banks in the soil.  Whereas annuals in semiarid sites usually germinate after light but extended rains, which occur in most years, perennial shrubs may germinate only after short but heavy summer rains, followed by sufficient subsequent rain, a pattern that occurs less frequently (Went, 1949). There are a number of studies of flowering of annuals:  in the ChihuahuanDesert (Kemp, 1983; Gutierrez and Whit-ford, 1987; Whitford and Gutierrez, 1989; Samson et al,1992; Philippi, 1993 a, b; Guo and Brown, 1996); in the Mojave Desert (Beatley, 1974); and in the SonoranDesert (Went, 1949; Inouye et al, 1980; Inouye, 1989; Pake and Venable, 1995, 1996). Little work has been done on flowering of perennial species, especially shrubs. The major examples are the detailed studies in Nevada by Ackerman and Bamberg (1974), Beatley (1974), Ackerman et al (1980). Turner and Randall (1987) modelled the 9 years of data of Ackerman et al for first dates of leafing, flowering and fruiting.  Kemp (1983) gives observational data for Chihuahuan desert shrubs.

        Long-term data sets have led to some general conclusions: (1) flowering can be predicted from data on rainfall and air temperature, (2) often rainfall and temperature have opposite effects, (3) the most important events occur 1-4 mo or more before blooming, and (4) sometimes predictive formulae cannot explain failures of flowering due to isolated extreme conditions, e.g.  droughts and freezes, which can affect blooming for years afterwards (Turner and Randall, 1987; Fitter et al, 1995; Sparks and Carey, 1995). I will use a 13 yr data set to test these general conclusions. Here I document the flowering times and magnitude of blooming of annual and perennial dicots of a semiarid community with the objectives of: (1) defining the seasonal patterns of blooming for the species, (2) analyzing the patterns of flowering magnitude in relation to annual variation of rainfall and air temperature, and (3) assessing the differences of species’ phenologies as the basis for plant diversity.

 

METHODS

 

        SITE____ The study site is a 9.3 ha cattle exclosure that was established July1958 in the San Simon Valley, 8 km north of Portal, Cochise County, Arizona.  The site is 1.5 km east of the foothills of the ChiricahuaMountains, at 1370 m elevation on a gentle slope (1.8%) of alluvium largely derived from limestone and volcanic tuff. Soil depth averages 29.5 + 10.8 cm (SD), over hardened calcium carbonate (caliche); the soil surface is predominantly small gravel.  The vegetation is ChihuahuanDesert scrub, which probably replaced black grama (Bouteloua  eriopoda) desert grassland that had been degraded by drought, over-grazing and erosion.  The dominant plants are creosotebush (Larrea  tridentata) and two subshrubs Parthenium  incanum  and Zinnia  pumila . The main nonforage plants, favored by grazing, are fluff grass (Tridens  pulchellus) and snakeweed (Gutierreziasarothrae). [Plant names follow Kearney and Peebles, 1960].  The vegetation in 1958 is described in Chew and Chew (1965), and subsequent changes in herbaceous and subshrub species in Chew (1982).

 

        WEATHER____  Air temperature, 5 cm above ground, was recorded continuously, 1980-1999, from a thermal element inside a 76 cm long x 48 cm wide x 71 cm high shelter with shade screen sides, with double roofs 8 cm apart. Mean daily air temperatures were calculated from field records [(max + min) / 2] and summed over weekly periods asdegree-days above 0o C. 

        I used 0o C as the threshold for biological activity of all plant species, although there is almost no information on thresholds for the species of the site. The threshold for flowering may be10o for Larreaand some other shrubs in the SonoranDesert (Bowers and Dimmitt, 1994), but there may be vegetative activity at 0o that is basic to later flowering.  French and Sauer (1974) used a threshold of 4o in their study of phenology of grasslands.

        Daily rainfall, 1980-1999, was measured in a rain gauge with an internal cylinder graduated in 0.01 inch increments to hold 1 inch total as delivered from a 10.5 cm funnel . Overflow from the graduated cylinder went into a surrounding 10.5 cm cylinder with a capacity of 28 cm of rainfall.  In 1980 and 1984-1987 rainfall was also recorded from a tipping-bucket rain gauge.

 

        PHENOLOGICAL SEASONS____  For analysis of plant and weather data I divided the year into six phenological seasons.  These were based retrospectively on generalities of the data for plant growth and flowering over 13 years:

(1) winter, weeks 45-4  (calendar days 309-28), ca. November-January, a period of dormancy of perennials and germination of spring annuals;

(2) early spring, weeks 5-16 (days 29-112), ca. February-mid April, a period of vegetative growth, but before the start of blooming of most species;

(3) late spring, weeks 17-26 (days 113-182), ca. late April-June, the period of the major spring flowering;

(4) early summer, weeks 27-30 (days 183-210), ca. July, generally before the start of summer flowering and germination of summer annuals;

(5) late summer, weeks 31-39 (days 211-273), ca. August-September, the time of major summer flowering;

(6) fall, weeks 40-44 (days 274-308), ca. October, little or no flowering, senescence or entry into dormancy.

                                                                                               

        TRANSECT COUNTS____  I walked a standard rectangular path (121.8 m x 152.4 m) and counted the flowering individuals within 2 m of the center of the path ____  an area of 0.216 ha.  The number of transect counts varied from 14 a year to 22 a year, depending on the time of  first and last blooming of any species.  Counts were made every 7 to 14 days. I counted a plant as blooming regardless of its number of flowers, which reduces the information that would be obtained if the magnitude of blooming of individual plants were noted.  To do the latter would have limited the size of transect that could have been used and the time-span of the study.
        I originally planned to limit observations to 7 yr (1987-1993), but because of the occurrence of unusual weather conditions, I added censuses in summer 1994, spring 1995 and summer 1996. During continuing unusual years of 1997-1999 full, consistent counts could not be made to establish total counts (Nt) for phenological seasons, but there were enough counts to establish numbers for peak weeks (Np).

        Counts were compiled by weeks from wk 1 (Jan 1-7) to wk 52 (Dec 25-31). Numbers were interpolated for weeks when no count was made. The first day of blooming was assumed to be the first day of the week in which flowers were first observed, and the last day of blooming as the last day of the week when flowers were last observed.  The total number (Nt) for a phenological season involves counting some individuals more than once as flowers persist from week to week and as new flowers are produced, but the count is still a measure of the magnitude of flowering of a species.  Usually there was one week when the number of individuals flowering was considerably in excess of adjacent weeks (peak week, Np).

 
       
GERMINATION QUADRATS____In winter 1997 I established eight circular 1 m2  quadrats, two randomly positioned along each side of the rectangular walking transect.  These were used to follow the number of germinating plants, and their progression to fruiting. Each quadrat was divided into quarters. In two randomly chosen quarters germinating individuals were removed as counted; in the other quarters they were marked with toothpicks and left in place for further development.

        ANALYSIS OF COUNTS____  I analyzed the data for total seasonal counts of flowering individuals of a species (Nt) for their relationship to the independent variables of rainfall and air temperature sum of appropriate phenological seasons by forward multiple stepwise regression using the JMP Program, Version 3.1 (SAS Institute 1995).  The variables chosen by the stepwise procedure were made into a model by the least squares program associated with the stepwise regression. Information from the model-constructing program provided correlation values (R2)  forNtwith each variable entered, and an adjusted correlation (AR2) for the whole model of n variables.  A model was rejected if it did not have an acceptable normality of residuals, a constant variance of residuals, and acceptably low multiple collinearity, as indicated by the program.  A model was also rejected if there was so little variation among the Ntvalues of some years that they functioned as a “single” point in determining the regression plot, or if there were years that were so exceptionally high that they biased the plot.  Models were constructed for the Nt values versus rainfall and temperature of the current year, and for the current year plus the previous year.  Models were constructed for the years 1987-1993, and for these 7 yr plus data for spring 1995, or plus summers 1994 and 1996, depending on when a species flowered.

        The multiple stepwise regression procedure has obvious defects: (1) It can be confounded by correlations among independent variables. (2) Because of the number of variables allowed into the selection process when Ntis regressed against the cur-rent plus previous year, there is the possibility, but not necessity, of spurious correlations.  However, the procedure has the advantage that its predictions are “transparent” suggestions of the predictability of Nt in terms of rainfall and temperature, rather than the “less transparent” information from procedures such as principal components analysis and lagged correspondence analysis.  The multiple stepwise procedure is retained here for its heuristic value in suggesting hypotheses to be tested by experimentation.         

        Stepwise multiple regression has been used successfully in the analysis of other long-term data sets: (1) for shrubs in the Mojave Desert (Turner and Randall, 1987); (2) by Fitter et al. (1995), for data taken over 36 yr in one location in England, who were able to fit regressions of first flowering date to temperature for 219 of 243 species; (3) by Sparks and Carey (1995), who found significant relationships with mean annual temperature and annual rainfall for 13 plant species in a data set extending over two centuries; (4) by Epstein et al. (1997) who found relationships explaining 67-81% of the variation in production of grasses of the US Great Plains on the basis of mean annual temperature and rainfall; (5) by French and Sauer (1974) in a study of the phenophases of three species of grasses.

 

RESULTS

 

        RAINFALL____  Rainfall was biannual (Table 1 ).  Winter and early spring rains were gentle and widespread over a broad area and  provided 35.8% of the average annual total.  Late spring rains provided only 7.6%; early and late summer rains, predominantly thundershowers, provided 50.8% of the total, and fall (October) was a hiatus of lower rainfall, 5.8%.  Variation in regional and global weather patterns resulted in exceptionally wet and dry phenological seasons in some years.  The interannual coefficient of variation ranged from 0.53 for early summer to 0.91 for late spring (Table 1). Variability resides in the shorter time periods of the phenological seasons.  Over broader time periods there is less interannual variability, to the point where annual rainfall has a coefficient of only 0.30.  Winter-spring rainfall is significantly greater in Arizona and New Mexico during El Nino events (Andrade and Sellers, 1988; Diaz and Markgraf, 1992; Dahm and Moore, 1994).  Monthly rainfalls at the site, 1980-1999, were greater March-May during El Nino events, dramatically so during the “super El Nino” of 1998, when early spring rainfall was the maximum recorded, 243% of the average for 1987-1999 (Table 1).

        Although four of the five years of records from a tipping bucket rain gauge were before the present study began  (Table 2), they are assumed to be representative of the pattern for the site;  66.5 % of the rain events were less than 5 mm, but  provided 21.9% of the average annual rainfall.  Only 33 rains were > 20 mm, and those in July-September provided 31.4% of the annual rainfall, versus 21.5 % by such events in all other months. The extremes of the distribution are of special interest.  Although rains < 5 mm may not directly affect plant growth, Sala and Lauenroth (1982) concluded they are important because they affect decomposition and nutrient processing, which occur principally near the soil surface.  They found that rains of 5 mm did directly affect the physiology of Boutelouagracilis in semiarid grassland for at least 2 days.  Summer storms > 22 mm can be sufficiently intense (0.25-1.32  mm / min) to cause runoff (Hawkinson,  1968).  Fourteen storms of this intensity were recorded by the tipping bucket rain gauge in five yr.  Winter rains of even 70 mm were of too great a duration to cause runoff.  The light rains of winter are made more effective for plants by the lower evaporation then; the heavier rains of summer are made less effective by runoff.

 

        TEMPERATURE SUMS____  Degree day summations for phenological seasons (Table 3) are inherently less variable than rainfall, with coefficients of variation ranging from only 0.03 in early summer to 0.15 in winter.  Most of the variability was in the fall through early spring.  Although temperature sum is less variable than rainfall, a small change of temperature sum may be as biologically important as a large change in rainfall (e.g. Scifres and Brock, 1969).

 

        CATEGORIZATION OF SEASONS_____ To ease conceptualization, I categorized seasons with respect to rainfall as very wet (W*), wet (W), moist (m), normal (N),  dry (d), drought (D) and extreme drought (D*), and, with respect to temperature sum, as very hot (H*), hot (H) , warm (wm), normal (No), cool (c), cold (C), very cold (C*) (Table 4). The categorization was based on the percentile distributions of values for each season across the 13 years in Tables 1 and 3: W* and H* are values >90% quartile; W and H = 75-90%; m and wm = 62.5-75%, N and No = 62.5-37.5 %; d and c =25-37.5%; D* and C* <10% quartile. The categorization within a season is relative only to itself.  For example: extreme wet (W*) is 147-154 mm rain for the winter season, but 262-297 mm for late summer.  The biological effect of extreme drought and extreme wet will depend upon the season of its occurrence.  The categorizations of Table 4 make clear the season-to-season variation within years and the interannual variation within a season.  No combination is repeated in the 13 yr tabulated.

 

        THE PLANT COMMUNITY____  The 32 species that were censused (Table 5) are listed according to three categories of maximum densities of flowering individuals.  A few species that did not bloom in at least 4 yr in the period 1987-1993 are omitted. Except for Astragalus spp. and Lepidium  lasiocarpum the omitted species are annuals that were present erratically or in very small numbers, although some of these were exceptionally abundant in 1995 (see later). The community is predominantly Compositae (12 of the 24 species with densities >400 stems / ha) and perennials (21 of the 32 species).

        The censused dicots are predominantly perennials: 2 shrubs (Sh, Table 5), which were up to1.5 m high; 2 subshrubs (SSh) of < 0.5 m height; 4 suffrutescents (SP), still smaller and only slightly woody; and 11 herbaceous perennials (HP). Ten censused species were annuals (A).

        The times of blooming of species (Table 5) as established by censuses are: spring only (Sp), spring and summer (Sp/Su), and summer only (Su), with some minor cases (Sp* and Su*) when less than 5% of blooming individuals were counted in the other season. The dominance of spring flowering by annuals (Table 6) is almost significantly different from random (X2 = 5.33, 0.10> P > 0.05, df = 2). There was no difference for perennials. All the annuals listed in Table 5 germinate in winter, and then bloom in the spring, except Eriogonum Abertianum, which does not bloom until summer. There are few summer-germinating annuals on the site, none of which was abundant enough to be listed in Table 5.

                                                                                                                       

        SPECIES BLOOMING PERIODS ____   Spring flowering begins with  an herbaceous perennial with a long tap root, Cymopterus  multinervatus, and an annual, Draba  cuneifolia (Table 7). Thirteen other spring-only species (one Sp*) are scattered throughout the spring period, among 13 species that bloom both spring and summer.  The year ends with 3 perennials (one Su*) and one annual that bloom only in late summer and 1 shrub that blooms only in fall.

        The average beginnings of spring blooming progress from day 61 to 147. The average duration of blooming of species in spring (Fig. 1a) increases from day 60 to day105 and then declines to day 150. The second degree polynomial regression for this relationship is:

 

Y (days duration) = -92.934 + (2.72219 x ave 1st day) - (0.01348 x ave 1st day2), which has an F value with probability of 0.072.

 

The average duration of summer flowering progresses from day 196 to day 254 (Fig. 2a) with a significant decline from beginning to end. The 2nd degree polynomial regression is:                                                                                                                                   

Y  = 1592.06 - (12.9558 x ave 1st day) + (0.02703 x ave 1st day2). P > F = 0-.046.

 

The mean duration of blooming was not significantly different for annuals and perennials, but was significantly less for cacti, which have only a few flowers per plant and  flowers that persist only one or a few days.

 

        COMMUNITY PATTERNS OF BLOOMING____ The rainfall and temperature sum categorizations of Table 4 were used to generalize soil moisture indices (MI) for spring and summer of each year (Table 8). Rainfall categories, as they related to the input of water to the soil,  were assigned  arbitrarily values of: W* = 3, W = 2, m = 1. N = 0, d = -1,  D = -2, D* = -3  Temperature sum categories, as they related to evaporation of soil moisture, were given half the weight of the rainfall categories: C* = 1.5, C = 1, c = 0.5, No = 0, wm = -0.5, H = -1, H* = -1.5. The earliest blooming of plant species in spring was compared to moisture indices summed for winter and early spring; earliest summer blooming was compared to MI values summed for late spring and early summer.

        The eight spring annuals bloomed earliest in years with soil moisture indices in the middle range of values (2.5 to -1.5) (Table 8).  Earliest bloomings did not occur in years with high MI (5.0 to 3.0), nor lowest MI (-5.5). The distribution of species bloomings was highly significantly different from random (X2 = 30, df = 7,  P < 0.005).  In two years with earliest bloomings (1995, 1989) the contribution of winter to the summed MI was positive (1.5-2.0 respectively) but early spring was negative (-1.0,  -3.0). In 1988 both winter and early spring were positive MI (0.5 and 2.0 respectively).  The earliest bloomings of 17 perennials were spread over the range of MI values (except the lowest, -5.5) with a tendency towards medium to low values (2.5 to -1.5), which was marginally significant (X2 = 12.9, df 7, 0.10> P < 0.05).  In spring no annuals bloomed in 1990 when MI was -5.5; 71% of perennials also failed to bloom that year.

        In summer, with data for only three species of annuals, there was no significant difference of distribution of earliest blooming from random.  Likewise for 16 perennials (in both cases X2  0.50 > P > 0.25).

        When the magnitude of flowering (Nt) of species is compared to the moisture indices summed over all phenological periods relevant to spring flowering and summer flowering (Table 9 ) the flowerings of annuals were greatest in spring at MI values of -1.0 to 3.5, very significantly different from random Flowerings of spring perennials were significantly distributed above MI 2.0, with major weighting at 2.0.  In summer, flowerings of annuals were greatest only at MI values 2.0 to 5.0, whereas perennials were spread over the range of values.

        This attempt to find community patterns in flowerings is, of course, confounded by the adaptations of the phenotypes of individual species, which are dealt with next.

 

FLOWERING CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIVIDUAL SPECIES

 

        WEEK OF FIRST BLOOM____ The week of first bloom each year was regressed against rainfall and temperature sum of appropriate phenological seasons for the 14 species that had a range of variation of first flowering of at least 5 weeks during the years of observation (Table 10).  Variables were significantly predictive of first week of spring blooming for two of three annuals; blooming was advanced for Baileyamultiradiata by an increase in winter precipitation, and advanced for Gilia  longifora by increase in temperature sum in early spring. Only one of nine spring-flowering perennials, Bahia, had a significant relationship; flowering was retarded by higher winter temperature sum.

            First summer flowering was significantly predictive for one of three summer annuals; Baileya;flowering was advanced by increase in early summer precipitation. Five of eight perennials were significantly predictive by summer rainfall or temperature sum (Table 10). Gutierrezia, which does most of its vegetative growth in winter and does not bloom until early or late summer, showed complicated predictive relation- ships; first bloom was delayed by increased late spring rainfall and advanced by higher late spring temperature sum, but was advanced by increased early summer rainfall and retarded by higher early summer temperature sum.

 

        MAGNITUDE OF TOTAL BLOOM (Nt)____   For almost all speciesthere was considerable variation in the number of flowering individuals censused from year to year (Tables 11a and 11b). These detailed data are provided for the use of anyone wishing to do a different analysis than provided herein.  For 18 species (Table 11a) the data for 1987-1994 provided significant whole models for the regression of Nt based on rainfall and temperature sum. For nine species (Table 11b) there was no significant relation-ship, but the data for five species show remarkable low and high values of Nt in the “exceptional years” 1994-1996.

        For the 18 species of Table 11a the models of Nt are highly significant with AR2 > 0.86 in all but one case. Models have a median of three independent variables (range 1-5).  For spring bloomings (Table 12), Nt is predicted by a mixture of variables of the current year (10 of 24) and previous year (14/24); the latter variables range from the previous fall through the previous early spring. Only one annual and three perennials are principally predicted only by current year variables. Five perennials are predicted principally by previous year variables. Precipitation is a dominant variable in 17 of 24 cases, whereas temperature sum is so in 7 of 24.

        For summer bloomings (Table 13) variables of the current year are more often predominantly predictive (14/21) than those of the previous year (7/21), as compared with spring data.  Precipitation is predictive in 14 of 21 cases (7+, 7-) and temperature sum 7/21 (2+, 5-). In one case, the number of Gilia flowering in spring is the second most predictive variable of Gilia summer Nt, the only species for which this is true.  Spring Nt was made an independent variable only  for models of summer flowering.

        There is no case in which two species have the same predictive relationship for the two most significant variables. Aster  hirtifolius  and Dyssodia  acerosa do share the same two variables (Table 12) but for one of them (Pfall*)  the relationship is  different.  

 

        “EXCEPTIONAL” YEARS”_____ In early 1994 it was sensed that the year was unusually dry__flowering by spring species was zero or nearly so (Table 11a, b).  Censusing of Nt was then extended to summer 1994, spring 1995 and summer 1996. For spring 1994 and 1996 no censuses were necessary, except for a few species, since there was no or very little flowering; The symbol (*) represents a “census” of zero in these cases  Limited observations of phenology continued through 1999.  In comparison to 1987-1993, 1994-1999 were exceptional in one way or another. Five of the six minimum values of rainfall for the six phenological seasons occurred in 1994-1999 (Table 1). The lowest total annual rainfall occurred in 1994. Every seasonal maximum for temperature sum occurred 1994-1999, with the highest annual total being in 1999 (Table 3).  Minimum rainfalls together with maximum temperature sums suggest low soil moisture 1994-1999 except as ameliorated by the second highest late summer rainfall in 1995. The coincidence of certain plant phenologies with the different precipitation and temperature sum patterns of 1994-1999 are very suggestive of cause and effect.

        Year 1994   was distinctive in having warm to very hot weather (wm, H, H*, Table 4) from winter through fall. Annual rainfall was a minimum in 1994; only early spring and late summer were normal rainfall (N) while other seasons were dry (d or D).  There were several negative consequences for flowering: (1) There was a failure of spring flowering more complete than after the 1990 spring drought (62 mm total for winter through late spring for 1990, Table 1, compared to 101 mm for 1994.  Larrea tridentata  was the only species that bloomed sufficiently to be censused, and unexpectedly had its maximum spring Nt in1994 (Table 11a). (2) Progressive leaf stress and senescence and some mortality of subshrubs was observed May through July. (3) Although rains began July 7, recovery of shrubs delayed their blooming by an average of 29 days (range 10-50 d) beyond their average beginning times.  A first summer census was not needed until August 24.  (4) Success of summer flowering was varied (Tables 11a, 11b).  Only a few seedlings of the biseasonal annuals, Baileya and Gilia  longiflora survived from winter to bloom.  Conversely, five biseasonal perennials had an average or above average summer Nt so that the community aspect was dominated by the flowers of Zinnia, Parthenium and Menodora.  Summer-only perennials varied: two bloomed near average; GutierreziaNtwas only 4% of its summer maxi-mum (to be expected because of its winter-spring vegetative growth), whereas fall-blooming Flourensia had its maximum bloom. (5) Although Gutierrezia  appeared to have greened-up normally through early spring, by Nov. 425 of 472 individualswere dead.  Although even moderate mortality of stems had not been observed previously for subshrubs, by Nov. 15.6% of Zinnia appeared dead; 25.5% of Dalea appeared completely dead and 50% had some dead stems.

        In 1995   weather was unusual in the way in which seasonal temperature sums enhanced or counteracted seasonal rainfalls, as they could affect soil moisture from winter through fall: (Table 4): WNo, NH, D*C, NC, WH, DH*. Annuals and most perennials responded in opposite ways. Winter rainfall was the second highest value (136 mm) and was equitably distributed over 13 of 14 weeks.  Species that were keyed to winter rainfall were very successful: (1) Seven annuals had spring flowerings that ranked first for all years. (2) Four annuals were present that had not been censused before, two of which had not been recorded for the site (Table 14). (3) Eleven annuals bloomed 2.2 wk earlier than on average (range 1-4 wk). (4) Two early flowering species, the geophytes Cymopterus and Dichelostema had their maximum spring Nt along with Dyssodia  acerosa, which showed an ability to respond to rainfall regard-less of season. Spring/summer perennials bloomed very poorly, with five species failing to bloom, or almost so (Tables 11a, 11b). Consequently no census was made in summer.

        In 1996: The drought, very warm (D,H*) of fall 1995 continued as a stress into the (D,H) of winter 1996, and dry, warm (d,wm) of early spring, even more severe than 1994. The above average rainfall (W) of late spring was partly offset by the maximum temperature sum (W,H*), which gave way to a normal early summer. Shrubs (Larrea, Flourensia) and subshrubs (Dalea,  Parthenium,  Zinnia) showed leaf stress until they began to green-up at the end of early spring. Almost all species had negligible spring blooms in 1996, as in 1994.  The years differed in the varied responses of summer flowerings (Table 11a).  Dyssodia  pentachaeta bloomed in record numbers in 1996, but failed to bloom in 1994. Dalea Ntwas a maximum in 1996, 223% of that in 1994; Gutierrezia was 160% of 1994, Zinnia 174%, but Parthenium only 22%. Summer-blooming annuals failed to flower or almost so.

        In 1997 only spot censuses were made.  In 1997 every seasonal combination of rainfall and temperature sum was unique, except for late summer (Table 4). Possibly as a result of the wet previous fall and the warmth (H) of winter FlourensiaParthenium and Zinnia retained some full-sized mature leaves through winter and began new leaf growth in March.  These plants are usually winter-deciduous. Twospecies bloomed exceptionally early: Lesquerella  Gordoni (A) on day 15 (vs. d 57,Table 7) and Dyssodia  acerosa day 15 vs. d 71.  The spring Nt of Dichelostema  pulchellum was way above average, but there were no other unusual Nt.

        Observation of the number and development of seedlings in 17 1-m2 quadrats was begun Jan 1997.  Seedling numbers were exceptionally high in relation to 1998-1999. In 10 quadrats in which seedlings were removed as they appeared, there was an average of 193 + 41 (SD) seedlings produced / m2 (range 32-487) which were of 13 + 5 species (5-21).  In seven quadrats in which seedlings were allowed to remain and develop, there was a mean maximum number of 151 + 77 seedlings / m2 (85-305), of 16 + 3 species (12-20). Most of the seedlings belonged to six annuals: Baileya  multiradiata,  Draba  cuneifolia,  Gilia  longiflora,  G. sinuata,  Eriastrum  diffusum, and Eriogonum  Abertianum, and one herbaceous perennial, Bahia  absinthifolia.  After they had bloomed and set seeds, some Baileya persisted as rosettes into the next year, the only instance of its biannual potential.  There was no germination of summer annuals.

        Year 1998 had strong contrasts. Early spring was extremely wet and cold, and then late summer had the maximum drought and maximum temperature sum recorded.  Flourensia  cernua and all subshrubs except Dalea retained green leaves through a normal winter and began new growth in early spring. Blooming was censused only at the start of late spring, W 17 and 18.  Dalea then had exceptional Nt and the overwintering rosettes of Baileya produced a record bloom.  Other species were unexceptional.  However, seedling production was greatly reduced below 1997.The seven species that averaged 151 seedlings / m2 in 1997 produced only 6.7 / m2 in 1998.  Ten other species together produced 1.0 seedling / m2 , but these did not survive more than 2 wk.

        Year 1999.A deficit of rainfall and above normal temperature sum persisted from late summer 1998 through late spring 1999 (Table 4). Rainfall was a minimum in early spring and nearly so in late spring (Table 1) and temperature sum was a maxi-mum in winter and early spring (Table 3). Although shrubs and subshrubs retained green leaves through the warm winter to wk 2, there was then progressive senescence and failure of new growth. Dalea had lost all its leaves by Dec. and by June appeared to be dead. Gutierrezia had 50% of plants with brown leaves by early Jan. and by June all individuals appeared dead. The evergreen Larrea began to turn yellow in Feb.- Mar. and its paired leaflets folded together and were covered by excessive resin. Parthenium, Zinnia and Flourensia were almost leafless by June.  With the first substantial rains in early July there was a hierarchy of recovery from drought.  Larrea immediately became bright green, leaflets unfolded and enlarged and flower buds appeared. week 28.  Parthenium began to expand its few surviving leaves wk 27, new leaves appeared directly from old stems wk 28 and were near full size wk 29 , and growth of new stems began wk 30.  Zinnia did not show greening of its grey leaves until wk 29 and had new stem growth wk 30.  By wk 32  Parthenium,  Zinnia and Flourensia had “robust” stem growth that seemed greater than previously judged.  In contrast Dalea had developed only a few leaves by wk 31 and only slowly leafed out to a usual extent.  Most Gutierrezia died; only 4.4% of individuals had sparse leaf regrowth.

        Only two seedlings of spring annuals germinated in winter 1999 in all quadrats. However, there was germination and survival to blooming and fruiting of summer annuals, an average of 16.5 plants / m2 of 30 different species. Most of these (59%) were of three species: Euphorbia  capitella (35%), E.  revoluta (10%) and Baileya (14%).  Fifteen of the 30 species were found in only one of 17 quadrats, as one or two seedlings; three bloomed that had not been recorded for the site. Twenty species did not develop to the point where they could be identified.

                                                                                                                                                            

DISCUSSION

 

        Variations of rainfall and temperature are generally considered to be the most important variables affecting flowering of plants in a semiarid environment. Some authors consider nitrogen and precipitation to be the two major determinants of the diversity and abundance of desert annuals (e.g. Fox,1989; Guo and Brown, 1996). Net primary production and net N mineralization both increase with mean annual precipitation in the Central Grassland region of the U. S. (Burke et al., 1997); however, N mineralization may only be a function of precipitation, rather than a proximate factor.

        However, determination of flowering is a complicated subject for analysis, since “The opening of the flower is an observed endpoint preceded by a complex of chemical and growth processes which are little understood” (Lindsey and Newman, 1956:813).  The switch of meristem from vegetative to reproductive growth is under control of genes that are just beginning to be identified.  

        The genome of Arabidopsis has greatly advanced the understanding of the control of flowering (see review by Simpson and Dean, 2002: “Arabidopsis, the Rosetta Stone of flowering time”).  Much experimental work has shown that in Arabidopsis there are multiple gene pathways that control flowering time.  These can be influenced by extrinsic factors such as winter temperature, ambient temperature during growth, photoperiod, light quality and intensity, as well as endogenous autonomic pathways associated with aging.  The multiple pathways can be integrated in different ways, changing the predominance of one pathway or another.  Mutations occur at many points with an effect on timing of flowering and other phenophases of plant development.  This provides considerable plasticity and diversity to flowering control. Broadly applied within a community of plant species with similar genetic plasticity and diversity, this could be the basis for adaptation of different species to various aspects of the environmental spectrum and possibly an important determinant of community species diversity.

 

WHAT IS THE CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE FOR THE PRESENT FLORAL DIVERSITY BEING DUE TO ENVIRONMENTALLY DRIVEN ADAPTATION?

 

          (1) The life forms of the plants display a considerable diversity that is more finely drawn than the gross categories of Table 5, i.e. “shrubs” (large size  to 1.5 m height), subshrubs (smaller than “shrubs”), “suffrutescents” (still smaller, and with minimal woodiness of stems) and “herbaceous perennials”. The last undoubtedly have many subtle phenotypic variations.  This spectrum of forms can well be the result of long-term adaptations of previous phenotypes.

 

(2)  The present site provides a great variety of precipitation and temperature sum combinations within six basic phenological seasons (Tables 1,3,4), which are based on the general patterns of germination, growth, flowering and senescence of species of the plant community. These combinations can well be selective forces on adaptation of life form and physiology of the species of plants.

 

            (3)  Although there is much overlap of the flowering periods of species, there is a definite temporal progression of the peak flowerings of species, with some distinction of spring-flowering species based on winter-early spring rains, and summer-flowering based on the summer rains (Table 7, Figs 1a, 1b, 1c and ,2a, 2b, 2c).For six cases, pairs of species that were next to each other in their times of maximum Nt were compared by the simple method suggested by Estabrook et al. (1982) for testing the statistical difference between phenologies.  In all cases the species’ phenologies were significantly different at P < 0.01, because of differences in the shape of their phenological curves and differences in timing.  These comparisons were for Cymopterus vs. Dichelostema spring 1995; Draba vs. Giliasinuata  spring 1992;  Aster vs. Dyssodia  acerosa  spring 1992; Gilia  longiflora vs. Baileya summer 1991;  G.  longiflora vs. Bahia summer 1988; G.longiflora vs. Eriogonum summer 1991.

 

            (4) The duration of flowering of a species (Figs 1, 2) has some dependence on when it begins to flower.  The patterns for spring and summer suggest they are due to the interaction of rainfall and temperature sum patterns.  In spring the successive duration of flowering increase from the middle of early spring (d 60) to the end of early spring (d 113) and then decline through late spring.  Increasing duration might be based on the benefits of linearly increasing temperature sum (Fig. 1c) and an adequate soil moisture due to accumulated rainfalls of winter and early spring.  Declining rainfall through early spring (Fig. 1b) and depletion of soil moisture by transpiration and evaporation, accelerated by increasing temperature sums may then constrain the length of flowering.  In summer the progressive decline of duration of flowering follows the linear decline of temperature sum (Fig, 2c), in spite of the peaking of rainfall in late summer (Fig. 2b). Each plant species is brought into the spring and summer sequence according to what triggers its first flowering for which there are both rainfall and temperature predictors (Table 10).

 

(5) The timing and magnitude of flowering can in many cases be predicted by rainfall and/or temperature sum conditions of prior and current phenotypic seasons.

(a) Of the 9 annual species that bloom in spring, the Nt of only 4 are significantly predictive; all 3 annuals that bloom in summer are significantly predictive.

(b) Of the 7 perennials blooming in spring, only 2 were predictive; of 11 species flowering both spring and summer 8 were predictive; of 4 species flowering summer and Fall, 3 were predictive.

 

(6) The distribution of predictive variables for the plant community as a whole (Tables 12. 13) suggest several relationships on a community-wide basis:

(a) Predictive variables occur equally in the previous year and current year: 42% and 47% respectively for annuals and 52% and 48% for perennials.  The previous year variables for annuals must act on seed banks, as is possible in a variety of ways (e.g. Harper 1977: 61-110). The high importance of variables of the previous year is surprising.  However, Dunnett et al. (1998), in a 38-year study of vegetation dynamics in relation to weather, found correlations of first day of flowering “generally evenly distributed” over lag periods of 0, 1 and 2 yr.

(b) In two cases an annual, Gilia  longiflora,  is significantly affected by a current variable other than rainfall or temperature;  spring flowering is inversely related to the simultaneous flowering of the perennial Bahia, and summer Nt  of G. longiflora is positively related  to the magnitude of its spring flowering.  LeBuhn (1998) has shown that there are three flowering phenotypes in G. longiflora: individuals that flower only in spring, individuals that flower both spring and summer, and those that flower only in summer.  The ratio of these phenotypes in the field varied from year to year.

(c) Annuals are equally affected by variations in rainfall and temperature sum: 52% and 47% respectively.  For perennials it is 64% and 36% respectively.

(d) The sum of positive relationships with precipitation (+P) and inverse relationships with temperature sum (-T) is 13 cases out of 17 for annuals, and 32 of 50 for perennials.  Of course, increased rainfall and decreased temperature sum combine to increase soil moisture, whereas the combination of -P and +T interact to reduce soil moisture.

 

(7) Examination of the seasonal distribution of the two most predictive variables for individual species shows that:

(a) Although annuals germinate in winter, none showed a significant relationship to current winter rain or temperature. Apparently, below a certain threshold of winter rain there will be little or no germination and flowering, above that threshold there is no relationship of amount of winter rain to flowering Nt. Three perennials had a relationship to winter rain:  Houstonia and Dyssodia  acerosa a positive relationship and Larrea a negative relationship.

 

Rainfall is inversely related to Nt , in 8 cases as one of the two most predictive variables (Tables 12, 13):

 

            for spring Nt     -Pfall*  Aster

                                      -PwinterLarrea

 

            for summer Nt -PearlySu* (A) Eriogonum

                                      -PearlySp* and -PlateSu  Menodora 

                                      -PearlySpParthenium

                                      -PearlySu Dalea

  -PearlySu  Dyssodia  acerosa         

                                      -PearlySp*  Zinnia


In all but one case the inverse relationship is effected before the phonological season of flowering; in one case it is during the flowering season.

 

            In 20 cases rainfall is directly related to flowering Ntas one of the two most important predictive variables:

           

for spring Nt  +PearlySp  (A) Phacelia

+PlateSp*  and  +PlateSu* (A) Malacothrix

            +PlateSp*  Aster

            +PlateSp*Dalea

            +PearlySp D.  pentachaeta

            +Pwinter  Houstonia

            +PearlySu*  and +PearlySp  Bahia

            +PearlySp*  Krameria

            +PlateSp  Larrea

+PlateSu* and +PlateSp  Opuntia

 

            In 7 cases the effect occurs in the prior year and hence well before flowering (6 perennials and 1 annual).

                        4 effects are before current year flowering  (one A).

                        1 is during flowering season (Larrea).

 

for summer Nt  +Pfall* and +PearlySp  (A) Baileya

  +Pwinter  Gutirrezia

  +PearlySp  Houstonia

  +PlateSu*  Bahia

  +PlateSu  Parthenium

  +Pwinter  D. acerosa

 

2 cases are prior year (one A).

                        4 are current yr before flowering (1 A).

                        1 case is during winter vegetative growth (Gutierrezia).

                        1 is during flowering time.

 

                                                                                                                                   

            General observations during 1994-1999, “exceptional years” show some general community responses.

            (1) When there is a negative soil moisture index (MI) continuing from the previous fall, or current winter on into spring, as in 1994, 1996 and 1999,  there is failure of spring flowering of annuals and perennials.

            (2) If the negative MI continues through late spring (1996) or on through fall (1994) there are obvious signs of stress in leaves, leaf senescence and death of stems and individual plants. If there is return of normal early summer rainfall (1996) there can then be recovery of perennial plants and even high or record Nt by some species. There is a hierarchy of recovery of plants from stress: Larrea,  Parthenium,  Zinnia, Flourensia, then Dalea.

            (3) High winter rainfall (2nd highest in 1995) can produce exceptional flowerings by annuals, with appearance of rare species, (Table 14), in spite of negative moisture indices in early and late spring (1995).  Spring moisture deficits can then be followed by failure of summer flowering, in spite of normal or wet summer (1995).

            (4) Years with a wet and / or warm fall on into following winter can allow the facultative evergreeness of shrubs and subshrubs on into spring (1997, 1998, 1999).                 

(5) Results for winter germination of annuals were ambiguous. Germination was high in 1997, after a W,Nofall 1996 and d,H winter 1997. In 1998, germination was down to 4% of that of 1997, after a d,C* fall and N,No winter. Only two seedlings were censused in 1999 after an N,H fall and d, H* winter.  

            (6) There was germination of summer annuals only in 1999 when summer rainfall was at its  maximum  and moisture index was a maximum of +4.5 for the 13 years of record. (Germination was not censused before 1997.)

                                                                                               

 

WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE DIFFERENT PHENOLOGICAL

NICHES OF THESE PLANT SPECIES?

 

        Overall, for all species that have predictable relationships to independent variables (Tables 12, 13),  there is  no case in which species have the same two most predictive variables!  It is as if, for flowering Nt, each of these species has its own adaptive niche of rainfall and temperature sum spread over six phenological seasons of the current and previous year.

        I suggest that for this site there are at least 15 categories of plants, with regard to their pattern of flowering.   This variety of responses parallels the multiplicity of ways in which desert annuals disperse their seeds and germinate (Gutterman, 1994) and recruit seedlings (Harper, 1977).  Abd El-Ghani (1997) found six different patterns of phenological behavior among 10 species in runnels and wadis of Saudi Arabia. Some species listed in Table 5 did not provide adequate information for discussion. Observations are by the author for the study site, unless cited to source.

 

            SPRING-ONLY BLOOMING PLANTS_____

 

        (1) Early blooming annuals with no significant relationships to rainfall and temperature: The three earliest blooming winter annuals (Table 7) flowered erratically in small numbers and their census data did not provide significant predictive models. They may be limited by spatial distribution of suitable microsites for recruitment of seedlings.  When conditions for germination and survival are marginal, they bloomed only in small scattered spots. Widespread blooming occurred only under very favourable conditions.  The earliest flowering annual, Draba  cuneifolia (DC, Table 11b) did not exceed a spring total bloom of 207 until 1995 when Nt was 192,000.  This production based on the soil seed bank was possibly triggered by the 1995 winter rainfall, which not only ranked second in amount, but had the most even weekly distribution of rain of any winter. The warm early spring may also have been a factor.  Gilia  sinuata (GU Table 11b) and LesquerellaGordoni (LG) behaved similarly.

        (2) Rain-dependent early spring-blooming annuals. Phaceliacrenulata (PC Table 11a), which did not begin to bloom until late in early spring (wk 14), had a marginally significant relationship to rainfall in the current early spring (Table 12).  The current year flowering of MalacothrixFendleri (MF) had a strong relationship to rainfall of late spring and late summer of the previous year. There are several ways in which the prior conditions could have conditioned seeds in the seed bank to produce flowering in the next year (Gutterman, 1944; Harper, 1977),

        (3) Early spring-blooming geophytes: Cymopterus  multinervatus (CM), the earliest flowering perennial, and Dichelostema  pulchellum (D) flowered erratically 1987-1993.  Both species had exceptional blooms in spring 1995 (Table 14).  Some of these flowering individuals may have developed from seed, however they probably grew from buds in a soil bud-bank.  Some geophytes have a delay in a juvenile stage be- fore blooming (Harper, 1997:689). Young plants with a single leaf were observed emerging with winter annuals in 1997, but did not bloom; only individuals with more leaves flowered.

        (4) Succulents: Opuntia  phaeacantha (OP) density was very low and its flowers were open only a few days, but individuals were obvious and were accurately censused.  Spring Ntwas significantly predicted by rainfall in late summer of the previous year and in the current late spring (Table 12).  Storage of water during the previous summer is probably important for the plants’ survival of desiccating conditions before the next spring, which can be acute in some years as in 1998-1999. Few  O.  spinosior and Echinocereus flowered.

        (5) Perennial subshrubs with significant relationship to previous year:  Spring bloom of both  Aster  hirtifolius (AH) and Dalea formosa (DF) were predicted largely by late spring rainfall of the previous year (R2 of 0.95 and 0.43 respectively). Temperature sum of the previous early summer was also important for Dalea (R2=0.36). Speculatively, prior conditions affected resource acquisition and allocation that had a “payback” in the following year.  In 1990 and 1994 when there was little or no spring flowering,  Dalea bloomed in the summer, one of several species with this seasonal flexibility.  In other years less than 5% of Dalea flowering was in summer.

        (6) Herbaceous perennials with no significant relationships: Erigeron  divergens(ED) had spring Nt ranging from 0 to 417; there was no significant regression model. This may be due to the fact that the distribution of Erigeron was limited by some factors to only two or three patches within the census transect in each year.

 

        FOR SPRING AND SUMMER FLOWERING SPECIES_____ 

 

        (7) Annuals with biseasonal flowering: Gilia  longflora (GL) is exceptional in that all plants germinate in winter,  but then have some individuals that flower only in the spring, some that flower only in the summer, and some that flower in both seasons.  There may be a genetic basis for these phenotypes (LeBuhn, 1998). In the present site flowering of G. longiflora was negatively related to temperature sum in both spring and summer (Tables 12, 13).  Variation of summer flowering was partly predicted by a positive relationship to spring bloom (R2 = 0.30); possibly a spring success of blooming by biseasonal individuals results in their summer success also.  Or, it may have been some other interaction of the three phenotypes.  LeBuhn (1998), who worked at a location 6 km south of the present site, found that the ratio of flowering of the three phenotypes was quite different in two successive years.

        Baileya  multiradiata (BM) bloomed predominantly in the summer (81% for years 1987-1994 (Table 11a).  When there were exceptionally warm winters, individuals overwintered in a rosette stage and flowered the next spring, i.e. were faculatively biennial, as in 1998-1999.  Flowering is predicted by a mix of variables of the previous and current years (Tables 12, 13).

        (8) Herbaceous perennials with seasonal emphasis: Krameria lanceolata (KL) and Dyssodia pentachaeta (DP) bloomed predominantly in the spring (61% and 73% respectively), when they had predictive relationships to conditions in the previous year (Table 12), particularly rainfall in early spring.  Neither had a significant summer mod-el.  Bahia (BA) bloomed predominantly in summer (63%) and predictive models for spring and summer were predominantly with conditions of the previous year.  Houstonia rubra (HR) flowering was slightly greater in summer (54%); both spring and summer Ntwere related to conditions of the current seasons.  Blooming was positively related to temperature in spring, but negatively in summer.  Aplopappus spinulous (AS) and Sphaeralcea subhastata (SS) flower patchily in low density and did not have significant models.

        (9) Subshrubs with no definite seasonal bias: Dyssodia acerosa (DA) seemed to be able to flower after almost every rainy period regardless of season. Overall, spring Nt was significantly related to the previous spring and summer, favored by rainfall then and adversely affected by temperature. Summer Ntwas positively related to rainfall in winter of the current year, but was inversely related to early summer rain-fall.  Zinnia pumila (ZP) bloomed predominantly in summer, when Nt  was significantly related to conditions of the previous year.  Spring flowering was erratic and had no significant model.

        (10) Evergreen shrub with seasonal emphasis but seasonal flexibility: Larrea  tridentata (LT) is the principal shrub that invaded this degraded grassland site, mainly in the period 1938-1948  (Chew and Chew, 1965).  In 1959 its canopy covered 17.4% of the ground and was 84.1% of the total plant cover.Larrea is present in two states: as scattered individual shrubs and as clumps of large shrubs on and around the abandoned mounds of the kangaroo rat, Dipodomys,  an inhabitant of the original grassland (Chew and Whitford, 1992).  The data herein are for the blooming of the scattered shrubs. The predominant spring bloom of Larrea  tridentata was significantly predicted by a positive relationship to rainfall in late spring  (R2 = 0.62), which is its main blooming period, and a negative relationship to winter rainfall (R2 = 0.31).  The “special” characteristics of Larrea may depend on its evergreeness.  When Larrea are given supplemental water in spring,  a greater proportion of assimilate is allocated to vegetative growth and a reduced proportion to reproduction, whereas water-stressed plants allocate more to reproduction (Cunningham et al.,1979). The same may occur in relation to natural variations of winter-spring rainfall.  In 1990, when winter rainfall was at a minimum  (7 consecutive wk without rain) and spring bloom of many perennials was low or zero, Larrea had its second largest spring bloom, Nt = 28, and then had its only marked summer  bloom, Nt = 90, 90% of which occurred in W 31 after the early summer rains. This is consistent with the observation of Showalter et al. (1999) that plants that were experimentally water-deprived had significantly more flowers than other individuals.  Larrea had the phenotypic plasticity to respond to the summer rainfall in 1990, although it did not so in 1988, when winter rainfall was much higher than in 1990.

        SUMMER ONLY BLOOMING SPECIES._____

 

        (11) Summer-flowering annual: The phenology of Eriogonum  Abertianum (EA) has been studied in detail by Fox (1989) at sites in the Ajo Mountains in southwestern Arizona and near Portal, at a lower elevation and 8 km from the present site.  This species germinates only in the winter and flowers predominantly in the spring in southwestern Arizona and predominantly in the summer near Portal. Greenhouse studies showed a genetic basis for differences of flowering of these populations (Fox, 1990).  At the present site only 8 individuals were observed blooming in spring from 1987 to 1993, compared to 2840 in summer.  Summer Nt is predicted by negative relationships with rainfall in the previous early summer and temperature in the current late spring (Table 13).  The importance of the latter must depend on allowing seedlings to survive from winter germination until summer vegetative and reproductive growth.  Fox (1989) found that near Portal, the survival of plants from spring to summer varied from 1.9% to 69% in the years 1978-1987.  Precipitation in a previous summer may condition seeds in the soil to respond the next summer.

        (12) Subshrub with winter vegetative growth and summer flowering: Gutierrezia  sarothrae (GS) is a weedy perennial in degraded grasslands; its success is partly due to its early regrowth of leaves in winter, before any other perennial. Gutierrezia germinates in winter along with the winter annuals.  Variation of summer bloom was largely explained by a direct relationship with winter rainfall (R2 = 0.66).  The overall model is suspect because it depends on four other variables in the current year.  The early vegetative growth must survive as the basis for summer reproduction, which does not always happen.  In the extreme drought and heat of early summer 1994 (Table 4) 90% of Gutierrezia died and population density was still reduced in 1996.  Again, in the dry winter-late spring of 1999 only 4.4% of individuals survived from winter into summer.

        (13) Subshrub with spring vegetative growth: Parthenium  incanum (P) is facultatively winter deciduous, usually retaining only a few small terminal leaves through winter.  New leaf and then stem growth occurs in early spring.  Variation off summer bloom, which reaches its peak in W 36-41, is mainly predicted by rainfall of late summer (R2 = 0.61), with some negative effect of rainfall in early spring.  Possibly in some years water can pool up in the shallow soil over the caliche layer and partly drown the roots of Parthenium, limiting later vegetative and reproductive growth.  A defoliation of Parthenium was observed 29 Aug. 1987 that was possibly due to large rainfalls in July and Aug. (106 mm, W29-31).  However, no defoliation occurred after even larger rains in 1988 (204 mm W33-36) and 1990 (116 mm W33-34).

        (14) Herbaceous perennial:  Menodora  scabra (MS) bloomed principally in the summer, with <5% of individuals flowering in spring.  Summer Nt is predicted by an inverse relationships to precipitation in early spring of the previous year (R2 = 0.66) and rainfall of the current late summer (R2 = 0.14).

 

        FALL BLOOMING SPECIES. _____

 

        (15)  Flourensia  cernua (FC) was remarkable for its delay of flowering (days 279-305 on average) until fall and early winter, as herein defined as phenological seasons.  Flourensia flowered in only 4 yr, 1989-1991 and then  maximally in 1994 (Nt = 125), for no obvious reason.

 

                                                                                                                                   

POTENTIAL FOR SPECIES INTERACTION

       
        The Nt values for individual species (Table 11) show the great variety of species’ responses to the variable weather through the years. There was no clear general pattern of responses by the plant community, except to very low moisture availability.  A prime example of phenological differences, and even possible interaction among species was that of two spring-summer blooming annuals, Gilialongiflora and Baileya  multiradiata, and the spring-summer  herbaceous perennial, Bahia  absinthifolia, from 1990 to 1995. On average, the spring flowering of Gilia  begins 2 wk before that of Baileya, but their average flowering periods overlap by 81%;   both completely overlap with Bahia (Table 7). In summer, the average blooming periods of Baileya and Bahia are completely within that of Gilia.  Gilia can then be suspected to have some developmental edge over the other two species.

        None of these species bloomed in spring 1990.  Then from 1990-1995: (1) Bahia had its maximum bloom in the wet (W) late summer 1990, after the drought, drawing upon resources in its roots.  There was no competition for soil resources from annuals then, since they had not germinated.  However, thereafter both spring and summer flowering of Bahia  progressively declined to zero in 1994-1995 (Table 11a).  (2)  Gilia flowered abundantly in spring 1991, based on its soil seed bank, and then maintained numerical dominance spring and summer, with a maximum spring Nt of 27,440 in 1995. (3) Baileya bloomed abundantly in spring and summer 1991, but then failed to flower, or only minimally 1992-1994. It did rebound in the favorable spring 1995 to near its spring maximum.

        These species contrast markedly in their recovery of flowering after failures to bloom in 1990 and 1994, and in their subsequent success.  The flowering of annuals, based on seed banks, was more successful than that of the herbaceous perennial, and their successes coincided with a decline of flowering of Bahia.  Guo and Brown (1997) concluded that there is a negative interaction between spring and winter annuals at their research site 8 km from the present site.  There may also be a negative interaction between spring-summer flowering annuals and herbaceous perennials. The genetic programming of these species must interact,  probably in several ways, with the changing independent variables of weather to produce the observed differences in flowering. Differences in genetic programming were obvious in the sequences of  germination and plant development observed in 1 m2  quadrats 1997-1998 (to be reported in detail elsewhere).  Five annual species were present together as small seedlings by Feb. 6, 1997.  Additional seedlings of all species were added through Apr. 16-25 in an 11 wk span of germination.  April 11 there were 41/ m2  Baileya and 18/ m2  G.  longiflora.  The advantage Gilia may have over Baileya is that while the latter was still in a rosette stage on April 11, Gilia, not a rosette-forming species, had be-gun stem growth and some plants were in flower bud and flower,  thus “getting a jump” on the use of soil resources for reproduction.  The perennial Bahia did not renew above ground growth until March 21-25, but then grew rapidly, and some plants were in flower bud by Apr.11.  Gutterman (1994) emphasized the variety of ways species differ in their germination.  Phillipi (1993a), who worked on germination of six species of annuals 8 km from the present site, found that seeds that do not germinate in a  first year may germinate the second year,  under “the same conditions”; that the fraction of seeds germinating is not the same in the 2nd year; and that germination under good conditions after a bad year differs among species.  Inouye (1989), working in the Sonoran Desert, found that the removal of seedlings as they appeared led to more germination, as compared to control plots.  I did not find this to occur in 1997-1998, when seedlings were removed from two quarters of each 1 m2quadrats while none was removed in the other two quarters (control).

                                                                                                                                   

OTHER INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

 

        It is instructive to briefly consider the possible effect of several other factors on species phenologies.

 

        Light,_____ Photoperiod and the annual cycle of light intensity undoubtedly have a role in determining the sequence of the blooming of the present species (Table 7), but because of their interannual reliability they are not a variable affecting Nt.  Photoperiod has been suggested to affect flowering of spring-only desert species (Acker-man and Bamberg, 1974), and species in deserts with two rainfall periods (Fox, 1990).  It has been documented as a cue for flowering in Cercidium microphyllum (Bowers and Dimmitt, 1994).  If temperature is adequate, photoperiod can have a role in the germination of some desert annuals (Gutterman, 1994).  In Arabidopsis a hexokinase coordinates intrinsic signals with extrinsic light intensity to affect flowering and many other plant processes (Moore et al., 2003).

 

        Pollinators._____   It is unlikely that pollinator abundance can cause variations in the amount of blooming, except as variation in pollinator availability affects seed set and thus the size of the seed bank and future germination. There has been much study of the effect of pollinators on the timing of blooming and patterns of interspecies flowering, but effects are seldom demonstrated (Schemske et al., 1978). There is no unambiguous example of adaptation of phenology to pollinators in U.S. desert ecosystems, except for Fouquieria  splendens (Waser, 1979).

        This is not unexpected in the context of a semiarid site, where it would be difficult for plant populations that are influenced by the inconstant weather of a site to track the presence of pollinators, also influenced by weather variation.  LeBuhn (1998) studied the pollination of Gilia (=Ipomopsis) longiflora at a site 6 km SSE of the present study plot.  Of the 671 visits of potential pollinators in 1994 and 1995, 99% in the spring and 71% in summer were by hawk moths (Sphingidae) and 1% and 19% respectively were solitary bees of three genera.  The long-tongued moths are able to get the nectar at the bottom of the 10-50 mm-long corolla tubes.  Gilia might be expected to flower in coordination with its predominant pollinator, but information is not available on the timing of Sphingidae presence and abundance.

        Many species of bees visit the flowers ofLarrea  tridentata and 22 species of solitary bees feed only on Larrea nectar and pollen (Hurd and Linsley, 1975), so there should be no problem of pollination of this species.  Insects sweeps in the present site (Chew, unpublished) demonstrated the presence of many species of insects that are documented as important pollinators by Proctor, Yeo and Lack (1996), and hence available to the plant community.

 

        Granivores. _____ Granivorous ants and rodents have a well documented effect on the composition and abundance of desert annual assemblages at a location 8 km SE of the present study site (Brown and Heske, 1990; Samson et al ., 1992; Guo and Brown, 1996).  However, granivores cannot be an important independent variable in the interannual variation of flowering of annuals unless there is considerable variation of granivore numbers year-to-year.  This can occur, as it did on a degraded desert grassland site in New Mexico very similar to the present site (Whitford, 1976). However, such a potential effect would probably be damped out due to time lags in the responses of annuals, as found by Samson et al . (1992). On the present site there has been a decline of granivorous rodents through 35 years (Chew, unpublished).

 

                                                                                                                                   

CONCLUSIONS

 

        I think it is reasonable to speculate that the biodiversity of the dicots of this semiarid ecosystem is a function of the interaction of the great variety of rainfall and temperature conditions, year to year, with the many phenotypes of the available plants, as they have assembled into the community in the short term and possibly further adapted in the long term.  The different plant phenotypes provide a spread of blooming times over the year and have adaptations that fit the different intra-annual and inter-annual variations of rainfall and temperature in successive phenological seasons through the year. The complications of variations of germination and of physiology of allocation of resources, and some preemptive competition of resources give shifting advantages within the mix of species.

        The general conclusions of Turner and Randall (1987) and others are largely confirmed.  The magnitude of flowering of a majority of species can be predicted from rainfall and air temperature.  These variables often have opposite effects. Sometimes predictive models can accommodate years of exceptional high or low rainfall. The significant predictive variables usually occur well before the period of blooming, even in the previous year.

 

DEDICATION

 

        This article is dedicated to my father, Harry A. Chew, who introduced me, unknowingly, to ecology, through the observation of the blooming times of wild flowers in the deciduous woodlands of West Virginia.

                                                                                   

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

 

        Revision of this article has greatly benefited from comments by the Editor and two anonymous reviewers of The American Midland Naturalist.   Discussions through the years with Walter G. Whitford, James H. Brown, Fred B. Turner and Thomas Valone have been an ongoing stimulus

                                                                                                             

LITERATURE CITED

 

Abd El-Ghani, M. M. 1997. Phenology of ten common plant species in western Saudi Arabia. J. Arid Environ. 35:673-683.

Ackerman, T. L. and S. A. Bamberg. 1974. Phenology studies in the Mojave Desert at RockValley (Nevada Test Site).  p. 215-226 In::  H. Leith (ed.). Phenology and seasonality modeling. Ecological Studies, Vol. 8, Springer-Verlag, New York.

_______________., E. M. Romney, A. Wallace and J. E. Kinnear. 1980. Phenology of desert shrubs in southern Nye County, Nevada.Great Basin Nat. Mem.,  4:4-23.

Andrade, E. R. and W. D. Sellers. 1988.  El Nino and its effect on precipitation in Arizona and western New Mexico. J. Climatol., 8:403-410.

Beatley, J. C. 1974. Phenological events and their environmental triggers in Mojave Desert ecosystems. Ecology, 55:856-863.

Bowers, J. E. and M. A. Dimmitt. 1994. Flowering phenology of six woody plants in the northern SonoranDesert. Bull. TorreyBot. Club, 121:215-227.

Brown, J. H. and E. J. Heske. 1990. Control of a desert-grassland transition by a keystone rodent guild. Science , 250:1705-1707.

Burke, I. C., W. K. Lauenroth and W. J. Parton. 1997. Regional and temporal variation in net primary productivity and nitrogen mineralization in grasslands. Ecology , 78:1330-1340.

Chew, R. M. 1982. Changes in herbaceous and suffrutescent perennials in grazed and ungrazed desertified grassland in southeastern Arizona, 1958-1978.Am.  Midl. Nat..,  108:159-169.

____________and A. E. Chew. 1965. The primary productivity of a desert shrub (Larrea  tridentata) community. Ecol.  Monogr., 35:355-375.

____________and W. G. Whitford. 1992. A long-term positive effect of kangaroo rats (Dipodomys  spectabilis) on creosotebushes (Larrea  tridentata).  J. Arid Environ.., 22:375-386.

Cunningham, G. L., J. P. Syvertsen, J. F. Reynolds and J. M. Willson. 1979. Some effects of soil-moisture availability on above-ground production and reproduction in Larrea  tridentata (DC) Cov.Oecologia, 40:113-123.

Dahm, C. N. and D. I. Moore. 1994. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon at the Sevilleta long-term ecological research site. p. 12-21 In:  D. Greenland (ed.), El Nino and long-term ecological research (LTER) sites. Pub. No.18, LTER Network Office, Univ. of Washington, Seattle.

Diaz, H. F. and V. Markgraf. 1992. Historical and paleoclimatic aspects of the Southern Oscillation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Dunnett, N. P., A. J. Willis, R. Hunt and J. P. Grime. 1998. A 38-year study of relations between weather and vegetation dynamics in road verges near Bibury, Glouchestershire. J. Ecol.., 86:610-623.

Epstein, H. E., W. K. Lauenroth, I. C. Burke and D. P. Coffin. 1997. Productivity patterns of C3 and C4 functional types in the U. S. Great Plains.Ecology , 78:722-731.

Estabrook, G. F., J. A. Winsor, A. G. Stephenson and H. F. Howe. 1982. When are two

            phenological patterns different? Bot. Gaz., 143: 374-378.

Fitter, A. H., R. S. R. Fitter, I. T. B. Harris and M. H. Wlliamson. 1995. Relationships between first flowering date and temperature in the flora of a locality in central England. Funct. Ecol., 9:55-60.

Fox, G. A. 1989. Consequences of flowering-time variation in a desert annual: adaptation and history. Ecology, 70:1294-1306.

____________1990. Components of flowering time variation in a desert annual.Evolution , 44:1404-1423.

French, N. and R. H. Sauer. 1974. Phenological studies and modeling in grasslands. p. 227-236 . In:  Leith, H. (ed.) Phenology and seasonality modeling. Springer-Verelag, New York.

Guo, Q. and J. H. Brown. 1996. Temporal fluctuations and experimental effects in desert plant communities. Oecologia , 107:568-577.

____________1997. Interactions between winter and summer annuals in the ChihuahuanDesert. Oecologia,111:123-128.

Gutierrez, J. R. and W. G. Whitford. 1987. Chihuahuan Desert annuals: importance of water and nitrogen. Ecology , 68:2032-2045.

Gutterman, Y. 1994. Strategies of seed dispersal and germination in plants inhabiting deserts.  Bot. Rev., 60:373-425.

Harper, J. L. 1997. Population biology of plants. Academic Press, New York. 892 p.

Hawkinson, R. O. 1968. Cover, soil, and microrelief characteristics which influence runoff on a desert grassland range. M.S. Thesis. Univ. Arizona, Tucson. 91 p.

Hurd, P. D. and E. G. Linsley. 1975. The principal Larrea bees of the southwestern United States (Hymenoptera: Apoidea). Smithson. Contr. Zool. , No. 193, 74 pp.

Inouye, R. S. 1989. Density-dependent germination response by seeds of desertannuals.Oecologia, 46:235-238.

____________, G. S. Byers and J. H. Brown. 1980. Effects of predation and competition on survivorship, fecundity, and community structure of desert annuals. Ecology, 61:1344-1351.

Kearney, T. H., and R. H. Peebles. 1960. Arizona flora.2nd ed. With supplements. Univ. California Press, Berkeley. 1085 p.

Kemp, P. R. 1983. Phenological patterns of ChihuahuanDesert plants in relation to the timing of water availability. J. Ecol., 71:427-436.

LeBuhn, G. 1998. The evolutionary significance of bimodal flowering in Ipomopsis  longiflora. Ph. D. dissertation. Univ. California at Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara. 139 p.

Leith, H. (ed.) 1974. Phenology and seasonal modeling. Ecological Studies Vol.8.Springer-Verag, New York. 444 p.

Lindsey, A. A. and J. E. Newman. 1956. Use of official weather data in springtime temperature analysis of an Indiana phenological record. Ecology, 37:812-823.

Lyons, E. E. and G. A. Fox (organizers). 1996. Symposium: Timing is everything: new perspectives on the ecology and evolution of floral phenology. Bull. Ecol. Soc. Am. , 77.

Menzel, A. and P. Fabian. 1999. Growing season extended in Europe. Nature, 397:659.

Moore, B., L. Zhou, F. Rolland, Q. Hall, W. Cheng, Y. Liu, I. Hwang, T. Jones and J. Sheen. 2003.  Role of the Arabidopsisglucose sensor HXK1 in nutrient, light, and hormonal signaling. Science ,300:332-336.

Pake, C. E. and D. L. Venable. 1995. Is coexistence of SonoranDesert annuals mediated by temporal variability in reproductive success? Ecology, 76:246-261.

____________1996. Seed banks in desert annuals: implications for persistence and coexistence in variable environments. Ecology, 77:1427-1435.

Philippi, T. 1993a. Bet-hedging germination of desert annuals: beyond the first year. Am. Nat., 142:474-487.  

____________ 1993b. Bet-hedging germination of desert annuals: variation among populations and maternal effects inLepidium  lasiocarpum.  Am. Nat.., 142:488-507.

Proctor, M., P. Yeo and A. Lack. 1996. The natural history of pollination.  Timber Press, Portland, Oregon.

Rathcke, B. J. and E. P. Lacey. 1985. Phenological patterns of terrestrial plants. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 16:179-214.

Sala, O. E. and W. K. Lauenroth. 1982. Small rainfall events: an ecological role in semiarid regions.Oecologia, 53:301-304.

Samson, D. A., T. E. Philippi,and D. W. Davidson. 1992. Granivory and competition as determinants of annual plant diversity in the ChihuahuanDesert. Oikos, 65:61-80.

SAS INSTITUTE, INC.. 1995. JMP Version 3.1. SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC.

Schemske, W. E., M. F. Willson, M. N. Melampy, L. J. Miller, L. Verner, K. M. Schemske and L. B. Best. 1978. Flowering ecology of some spring woodland herbs. Ecology, 59:351-366.

Scifres, C. J. and J. H. Brock. 1969. Moisture-tempeerature interrelations in germination and early seedling development of mesquite. J. Range Manage., 22:43-37.

Showalter, T. D., D.D. Lightfoot and W. G.  Whitford. 1999. Diversity of arthropod responses to host-plant water stress in a desert ecosystem in southern New Mexico.Am. Midl. Nat.., 142:281-290.

Simpson, G. G. and C. Dean. 2002. Arabidopsis, the Rosetta Stone of Flowering time?  Science , 296:285-289.

Sparks, T. H. and P. D. Carey. 1995. The responses of species to climate over two centuries: an analysis of the Marsham phenological record, 1736-1947. J. Ecol., 83:321-329.

Turner, F. B. and D. C. Randall. 1987. The phenology of desert shrubs in southern Nevada. J. Arid Environ., 13:119-128.

Waser, N. M. 1979. Pollinator availability as a determinant of flowering time in ocotillo (Fouquieria  splendens) . Oecologia , 39:107-121.

Went, F. W. 1949. Ecology of desert plants. II. The effect of rain and temperature on germination and growth.  Ecology, 30:1-13.

Whitford, W. G. 1976. Temporal fluctuations in density and diversity of desert rodents. J.  Mammal., 57:351-369.

Whitford, W. G. and J. R. Gutierrez. 1989. Effects of water and nitrogen supplementation on phenology, plant size, tissue nitrogen, and seed yield of Chihuahuan Desert annual plants. Southwest. Nat., 34:546-549.

-----------------------------

Note: Italics are not used herein because they are not compatible with certain makes of computers when referencing web-site material.  Scientific names are underlined.

 

 

Table 1.

Rainfall (mm) by phenological seasons.  Mean is based on 13 y of data 1987-1999.    

Underlined numbers are minimum and maximum for each season.

Season

Mean

cv

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Winter

80.2

0.57

125

94

69

11

80

154

122

42

136

17

54

97

42

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Early Spring

46.1

0.55

42

59

18

21

63

57

38

46

45

29

53

112

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Late Spring

26.8

0.91

34

25

4

30

19

91

29

13

3

48

42

6

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Early Summer

64.7

0.53

106

87

69

75

67

84

19

15

51

67

19

52

130

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Late Summer

114.2

0.65

80

297

66

210

102

73

84

96

162

46

162

24

92

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fall

20.4

0.88

23

62

30

22

8

6

19

8

4

49

10

22

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YEAR

352.4

0.3

410

624

256

369

341

465

311

220

401

256

340

313

286

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



















Table 2.  

Distribution of 287 rainfall events over 5 y (1980, 1984-1987).

 

 

0.1-2.5 mm

2.6-5 mm

5.1-10 mm

10.1-15 mm

15.1-20 mm

>20 mm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Frequency of event

0.491

0.174

0.153

0.07

0.05

0.056

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average proportion of annual rainfall

0.102

0.117

0.208

0.159

0.151

0.262

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Table 3.

Temperature summation (degree days C) by phenological seasons.

Underlined values are maximum and minimum for each season.

Season

MEAN

cv

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999